Today's session (15 August 2016)

Hi everyone

Today we looked at PSDM models.

We started by talking about some of the things which could affect our ability to solve problems effectively. The class identified a number of factors including the people in the team, our perceptions, the quality of the information we work with and whether we understand the problem correctly.

We then tried putting these ideas into some sort of order which would help us make sense of them and how they relate to each other. Both of our teams used a temporally sequential model (that means that you put them in time order as the more-or-less happen) and both teams though about how the factors could affect each other.

We then compared the teams’ results with a slide which I had prepared earlier (see slide 3 in the Models powerpoint in Moodle, under Session 4). This slide listed stages in the PS and DM process where errors could creep in (e.g. at planning stage or when we take action) and it gave some examples for each stage (e.g. Misinterpretation or not understanding; Poor technique; Poor assumptions at Problem definition stage).

(In reality, I cheated a little bit here because I used the Simplex model to give me each of the eight stages which I listed on my slide. More about Simplex in a moment …)

We then moved on to look at several PSDM models.

There are literally thousands of models which can be applied to problem solving and decision making. Some of these models are intended to be very generic and applicable to many everyday situations. Others have been designed to address specific business-related situations (such as quality in manufactured goods or changing organisational behaviour). This means that you can choose any recognised PSDM model that is applicable for Assignment 2. You do NOT have to choose from the models which we discussed today.

I pointed out that many of the basic PSDM models share similar stages, often under slightly different names. Whether you analyse your results or study / check is partly a matter of preference and partly a shift in emphasis depending on what the originator of the model you are using wants you to think about.

We started with the basic IDEA model (Identify, Define, Explore and Action) which we looked at in session 1. This is a really simple model in which we examine a problem, assess options and then do something to fix the problem. Put another way, we take a problem, we do something to it and after a while we get something else (remember that in a moment …)

We then added a bit of complexity to the IDEA model by including a fifth stage (‘looking back’) and looping the whole process back to the start so that we had a model which could continually loop until we solved our problem. These two additions allow us to review what we have done and to make further modifications if the problem isn’t solved the first time (or if the solution creates another problem). This is the IDEAL model.

The Problem Solving Loop is also a reiterative model (that means that it loops back to the beginning and restarts). In this case the five stages are:

1 Identify the problem

2 Explore information and create ideas

3 Select the best idea

4 Build and test the idea

5 Evaluate the results

(Repeat from the top, if required).

We also had a look at the Problem Solving Process slide and I drew your attention to the define - test - analyse - compare feature in this model (once again, more about that feature in a moment …)

We then changed our focus to creativity and arts, and had a look at a model used by Jonathan Milne at the Learning Connexion, in the Hutt Valley. Milne thinks of his process as a spiral which starts with an idea and then progresses to action and finally feedback. Each turn of the spiral is another stage in the process and we discussed whether we thought this represented ‘growth’ as the idea became more concrete and turned into something real.

Milne also refers to an idea expressed by American artist Jasper Johns. Johns described the artistic process as: ‘You take something, you do something to it and pretty soon you end up with something.’ In its own way, an artist creating something is another use of the PSDM approach to make a transformation and to achieve an outcome.

From there, we looked at the Simplex Problem Solving model. This is a model developed by consultant Min Basadur, who studied PS and DM in various organisational settings. He developed a process model consisting of eight stages, as follows:

1 Problem finding

2 Fact finding

3 Problem definition

4 Idea finding

5 Selection

6 Planning

7 Selling the idea

9 Action

The interesting thing about Basadur’s model is that he fits his eight stages around three simpler steps:

Problem formulation (steps 1 – 3)

Solution formulation (steps 4 and 5

Solution implementation (steps 6 – 8)

(Even more interesting was that some of the class were discussing the differences between problem formulation and solution formulation earlier in the session today!)

We then had a quick look at a very specific process model developed by John Kotter. Kotter is interested in change management (which we can think of as the problem of how to achieve change within organisations). Kotter’s model also consists of eight stages, as follows:

1 Create a sense of urgency

2 Build a guiding coalition

3 Form strategic vision and initiatives

4 Enlist volunteer army

5 Enable action by removing barriers

6 Generate short term wins

7 Sustain acceleration

8 Institute change

When we start talking about specific topics such as change management, then we are drilling down quite deep into one specific subject area. You should be able to see that a simple IDEA model is of limited value if your problem is about achieving change in the workplace. So, start thinking about which models are appropriate for the job (in this case, Assignment 2) and if you can’t find a model which is suitable then go looking for one that is!

Next up was a very simple quality management model, which underlies many other models. This is the Deming Cycle (or Shewhart Cycle), otherwise known as plan-do-study-act (or plan-do-check-act). Deming was an engineer who spent time in Japan after World War II and played a big part in developing Japanese management systems. His interest was in statistical analysis and sampling defects in products.

(Remember my comment about the Problem Solving Process and how it uses define-test-analyse-compare (above)? How do you think this compares to Deming’s plan-do-check-act?)

Deming’s system is based around a four-stage process in which each stage informs the following stage before looping back to the start. So, we start by planning what we will do. Then, we do it to see what will happen. Next, we evaluate what happened. Finally, we make changes arising from our knowledge of what we did. Deming’s ‘problems’ were based around quality management in manufacturing environments but you might like to try this model for simple everyday problems and see what happens.

Then I showed you a simple representation of the Scientific Method, which is used to solve knowledge-based problems through the use of hypothesis testing. The interesting thing here, is that we can see plan-do-study-act steps from the Deming Cycle in the Scientific Method:

1 Make observations

2 Think of interesting questions

3 Formulate hypotheses

4 Develop testable predictions

5 Gather data to test predictions

6 Develop general theories

I also showed you the Ford 8D model and a simple engineering design process. All of these models help us to address problems in a systematic and logical manner. They also provide structure to our process and a framework that we can use to reach a conclusion (end point), sometimes through repeating the process over-and-over again.

I finished by showing you one more model. This is the DECIDE model, where the stages are represented by:

1 Defining the problem

2 Establishing the criteria

3 Considering alternatives

4 Identifying the best option

5 Developing an action plan

6 Evaluating the solution

We then did a practical exercise using the DECIDE model as our guide for solving problems and making decisions about available hospital beds in an emergency department at a hospital. See the final slide in the model powerpoint in Moodle, under Session 4 for more details about what was involved in each step.

(Remember also to have a close look at the jellybean jar in the Faculty’s admin office, sometime during the week. I need you to work your magic and come up with the correct number of jellybeans in the jar. At the mid-semester break whoever is closest to the actual number of jellybeans in the jar will win the whole jar.)

Cheers

Phil