Today’s session (31 July 2017)

Hi everyone

Great to meet you all today at our first BUS6291 Problem Solving and Decision Making class for 2017!

We started with a rather impromptu discussion about Mars and what sort of problems might be associated with making the trip there and back. Some of the issues include what we might need to take with us, what might be there that we can use, how people might cope with the isolation (and travel and reduced gravity) as well as medical and health issues. For those who are interested, there is a very interesting interview on National Radio (go to http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201809507/what-is-it-like-to-live-on-mars and click on ‘Listen’) concerning a Mars simulation being run by NASA in Hawaii. The interview includes a discussion about many of the issues above and it is worth listening to if you have a free half hour.

I then gave you a brief overview of the Problem Solving and Decision Making paper for 2017, including a few ‘house rules’ and some of the things that you can expect over the next semester. The main things to note at this stage are:

* That this is a second year paper where the emphasis is on analysis and application. Think about the work that you do on the paper in terms of these two requirements.

* That as you move from first year papers to third year papers, you will be developing independent learning skills. That means that this paper will be a combination of me-telling-you-things and you-finding-things-for-yourself (facilitated and supported learning).

* That you will need to do your own independent learning outside of the classroom. This includes at least 110 hours of self-study, group and project work outside class times, some of which will involve assignment work and some of which will be general independent research and learning.

You should also be aware that this paper is intended to be highly interactive and we will be doing a range of activities including practical work and visits by industry. Where possible, we will be trying to use classroom sessions for discussions and collaborative work.

Please take the opportunity to ask questions and try things. There is no such thing as ‘silly questions’ in the PSDM class and I would really love to hear from you as you apply your PSDM learning to real-life situations.

Please read the Course Outline (softcopy available on Moodle). The Course Outline contains important information about the paper (what you need to do to pass the paper, suggested reading, how to contact me, etc.) as well as all of the assignments and marking schedules. I understand that this is a lot of information to take in on your first day so please contact me right away if you are unsure about anything.

We then moved on to introductions. I asked students to introduce each other and to talk briefly about a problem that their partner has faced recently and how they resolved that problem. This was a good opportunity for me to learn a bit about you and it was also an opportunity for you to start on Assignment 3 (Journal). Have a look at the requirements for this assignment in the Course Outline and also see the Assignment 3 template on Moodle. Remember that you will need to include an analysis and a discussion of techniques, models and methods.

We then had a quick look at Republic Polytechnic in Singapore. Republic Polytechnic is a very interesting place! A substantial amount of the teaching there is based around PBL (‘problem based learning’). Each day begins with the tutor outlining a case study problem to the students before sending the students off in groups to research, discuss and prepare their case study findings. At the end of the day the students return to the classroom and each group presents their finding to the tutor. They do this each day and you can probably imagine how experienced the students are by the end of their qualification! By repute, Republic Polytechnic turns out some very competent students with skills that are well matched to industry expectations.

(Republic Polytechnic is interesting for other reasons as well. As part of the site design, a lot of recycled material was used, including carpet made from nylon recovered from old car tyres. The cooling systems are based on chilled water (rather than conventional air-conditioning) and this saves a significant amount of electricity).

After the break, we had a quick look at some of the ways in which we learn. In particular we looked at:

* Learning through association – Classical Conditioning

* Learning through consequences – Operant Conditioning

* Learning through observation – Modeling / Observational Learning

We then moved on to look at a one of the most interesting paradoxes in problem solving and decision making. This is the Monty Hall problem, named after game show host Monty Hall. In the classic Monty Hall problem, Hall would present contestants with three closed doors. Behind one door would be a new car while the other two doors had goats behind them. The contestant would be asked to choose a door, after which Hall would open one of the remaining doors to reveal a goat. He would then ask the contestant if he wanted to change his choice of door to the other closed door. The correct answer (whether to change doors or not) is really interesting and I would encourage you to read more about it. There is a lot of additional discussion around the outcome when ‘Monty’ is assumed to be ‘good’ or ‘evil’ or ‘ignorant’.

We then talked a bit about the things that affect our ability to make good day-to-day decisions. We often address problems by making assumptions about how the world works. For instance, we might assume (in the absence of other information to the contrary) that we have all the information that we need, or that people are being open and honest with us, or that things that worked for us yesterday will continue to do so today. These short-cuts help us to quickly cope with complex situations and to arrive at reasonably ‘workable’ solutions.

I then gave you a couple of participatory problem-solving exercises, looking at issues that affect student work.

* How do we get students to buy and read the course textbook?

* What can students do to get the best possible result for their assignments?

We then did a slightly different exercise, in which I asked the class to come up with different ways that I could use to divide the class into smaller groups (for a project next week). Again, we had many interesting and clever ideas, all generated through a quick-fire PSDM technique known as brainstorming. At the end of the exercise I showed you several predictions that I had made (before class) about how I thought you might handle the exercise. These predictions involved information gathering, discussion, information exchanges and recommendations. As it turned out, my predictions were reasonably accurate (thankfully!) and I asked you why you thought that this might be the case.

I suggested to you that I could make this sort of prediction because people tend to rely on simple models for problem solving and decision making which they carry around with them in their heads. I then introduced you to a very simple problem solving model (the IDEA model, which consists of Identifying the problem, Defining the problem, Exploring options and deciding on an Action).

Often, we use these models without realising it and I suggested to you that some of our responses to problems are ‘automatic’. To explore this idea further, we did a practical demonstration in which a student had to pick up a pen from a table. To begin with, our volunteer picked up the pen in his right hand. Then we asked the student to pick up the pen again without using his right hand. This time the student picked up the pen in his left hand. The next time through, the student couldn’t use either his right or left hand and, as we continued on with the demonstration, we eliminated more and more options. In the end there were some quite clever ways suggested to pick up the pen!

We noticed several things as we did this experiment:

* The first few responses were the quickest (where problem solving is automatic, based on pre-rehearsed assumptions and responses)

* As we eliminated the easy options, the time between instruction and decision got longer (there was more problem solving going on as known options reduced)

* Solutions became harder to find

* New ways needed to solve the problem (different thinking?)

We then did a similar experiment with a student opening an imaginary door. The first time through the door opened by a lever (or by turning a knob). Next, the door opened like a roller door on a garage, and so on. Again (in theory, anyway!), it took longer to come up with solutions as we eliminated the things that we are familiar with and started to explore different thinking options.

Think about the sort of thinking that you commonly use to solve problems and make decisions. Some of it may be rehearsed, some logical, some creative, some lateral or something else. You can also try playing around with different styles in different situations (for instance, try coming up with creative and innovative ideas to routine problems such as ‘what shall I have for dinner?’)

Finally, we moved on to the Great Jellybean Challenge. This is a simple game which some of you might have played before in one form or another. The challenge is to work out how many jellybeans are in a jar. Typically, you can see some of the jellybeans and you can see the size of the jar so you have some clues that you can use when trying to find the correct number of jellybeans.

We will return to the Great Jellybean Challenge throughout the semester. Have a think about different ways in which you could arrive at the correct number of jellybeans without opening the jar and counting them out. Some of the ways to do this include:

* Guesswork

* Rules of thumb (heuristics)

* Estimate / sampling

* Previous experience

* Ask lots of other people and average the results (statistical)

* Measurement (volume; weight?)

* Make your own model, measure it and extrapolate.

Some of these methods are better than others!

This discussion led us to think about similar situations (in business) where problem solving and decision making skills are needed. For instance, if we substitute a mound of earth for the jar of jellybeans then we have a situation in which we need to be able to correctly cost out trucks, diggers, labour, transit times and other logistical issues in order to remove the mound of earth, on budget and within the required timeframe.

We see this sort of situation in job estimates, logistics and supply and workloads and workflows. In these cases we need information and models to help us resolve problems and to make the right decisions.

(By the way, the Great Jellybean Challenge jar will be kept in the School of Business admin office and you can inspect it during office hours. The jar will live in the admin office for the next two months and you can see and handle the jar if you like (but do not open it or take it away). During the term, each student will have the opportunity to pick a number that they believe is closest to the number of jellybeans in the jar. The winner will be announced in the last week of term 3 and that person (or persons) will get to keep the jar!)

Hopefully, today was a fun and informative introduction to problem solving and decision making! We will continue next Monday when we will pick up on some material that we didn’t get time to cover today. In the meantime, you should read through the Course Outline and make a start on the assignments.

If you have any difficulty with Assignment 1 then let me know right away so that we can sort things out.

Cheers

Phil Sales

--------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL NOTE: Database searching

Next week we have a session scheduled in the library (in room A202), between 1:00pm and 2:30pm, on Monday 7 August 2017.

As you progress through tertiary level study, you should be developing good academic research skills by using books, journals and articles (rather than lower-level internet resources). Catherine Doughty will show us how to use the online databases to find high quality academic and authoritative resources which you can use in your assignments.

The session on 7 August is about database searching and it is intended to help you to use library resources and on-line databases. You are expected to use academic books, journals and articles in your assignments, where appropriate, and to show that you are familiar with these resources. Among other things, you should be looking for PSDM models, tools, techniques and theory which you can use for Assignments 2 and 3 (and possibly 4).

I suggest that you look at these assignments this week and think carefully about the sort of things that you will need from the library. You should use the session on 7 August to do the following things:

* Familiarise yourself with database resources

* Locate useful PSDM models, tools, techniques and theory which will help with your assignments

* Find general resources on PSDM which will help you to develop your understanding of the subject.

Our class will start at 1:00am in room A202 (in the library) and then continue in D101 between 2:30 and 4:00pm.

--------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL NOTE: Textbook and Assignment 1

This year we will be trying something new with the textbook.

Rather than asking students to buy a compulsory textbook (at $100 or more!) we will be trialling the idea of making our own textbook (Resource Book). This book will be a softcopy (PDF) consisting of links to interesting and authoritative sources available on the internet. These sources may include articles, video clips, sound clips, journal articles, etc. Students are invited to recommend sources to me for inclusion in this Resource Book so I am anticipating that the Resource Book will be continually revised and updated during the semester. You can download the latest version through Moodle (and how often it updates will depend on you!)

Please note that Assignment 1 is about the Resource Book so please familiarise yourself with this PDF and start early on this assignment!